Farm equipment sales have been sliding since late 2024, and 2026 hasn't brought the turnaround dealers were hoping for. The Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), which compiles monthly flash reports from its member companies, has now logged more than a year of steep year-over-year declines in US and Canadian ag tractor and combine sales. For anyone buying or selling used heavy equipment in Quebec, the trend is worth understanding — it's reshaping used values and creating openings on both sides of a deal.
What the AEM numbers show
AEM's monthly reports tell a consistent story of a market still looking for a bottom:
- December 2025 (year-end close-out): US ag tractor sales down 14.8% and combine sales down 4.3% year-over-year; Canadian tractor sales down 13.7%, combine sales up 26.1%.
- March 2026: US ag tractor sales down 9.1%, combine sales down 25.3% year-over-year; Canadian tractor sales down 16.3%, combine sales down 60.6%.
- May 2026: US total farm tractor sales down 21.6%, self-propelled combine sales down 56.1% year-over-year; year-to-date (January-May) tractor sales down 12.4% and combine sales down 14.6%.
Why the market is soft
Trade press covering the sector — including farmdoc daily and RealAgriculture — points to the same handful of causes repeating month after month. Corn and soybean prices have stayed low enough to compress farm margins, so producers are deferring big-ticket purchases. Interest rates remain elevated, raising the cost of financing new equipment. And dealer lots, especially for high-horsepower tractors and combines, are still carrying more used inventory than they were a few years ago, which gives buyers leverage and slows new-equipment turnover.
There are early signs the used market is finding a floor, though. Sandhills Global, which tracks used equipment listings and auction results across North America, reported that in January 2026 used 100+ HP tractor inventory was down 16.99% year-over-year while auction values were up 1.89%; used combine inventory was down 11.43% while auction values rose 2.35%. Sandhills described dealers as 'cautiously optimistic,' noting that several markets 'have bottomed out and are beginning to tick up.'
Canada and Quebec: a different mix
Farm Credit Canada's 2026 equipment outlook shows the same pressure on new equipment — it projects further 2026 declines for new 100+ HP tractors (-5.6%) and new combines (-6.7%) — but a notably better story for used equipment. FCC projects used 40-100 HP tractor sales up 2.8% in 2026, and used baler sales were already up more than 30% in 2025, driven largely by strong cattle prices supporting forage and livestock equipment upgrades in eastern Canada, including Quebec.
In other words, Quebec's mix of grain, dairy and livestock operations isn't riding the exact same wave as the US Corn Belt. Demand for livestock and forage equipment has held up better than for large-horsepower row-crop iron, which is where most of the US decline is concentrated.
What it means if you're buying used
If you've been waiting for used prices to soften, the data backs up what you're likely seeing on the lot: inventory is still elevated compared with a few years ago, and asking prices on big tractors and combines have room to move. But the auction-value trend is worth watching — auction values for both categories turned upward in January 2026 even as asking prices stayed soft, which is often an early signal a market is closer to the bottom than the top. Right now the opportunity is less about waiting for a total collapse in prices and more about moving on clean, well-documented equipment before asking prices catch back up to firming demand.
What it means if you're selling
A softer market doesn't mean your equipment won't sell — it means buyers are more selective and better informed than they were two years ago. Clean maintenance records, honest photos and realistic pricing matter more in a slow market than a fast one. If you're unsure where your machine sits against current used values, ordering a market valuation before you list gives you a defensible number instead of guessing against a moving market.
We'll keep tracking AEM's monthly reports and update this post as the picture develops — check back if you're timing a purchase or a sale around where the market is headed.